Business Forum • 24 March, 2026 at 8:29 AM
The Iran war continues without a clear end, and financial market participants are beginning to consider a scenario where the conflict extends over months rather than weeks, according to an Ebury analysis.
After a relatively calm initial reaction, recent developments have generated classic "risk-off" behaviour: stock markets have fallen, investors have turned to safe-haven assets - especially the US dollar - and energy prices have risen sharply, in a context of volatility comparable to major crisis episodes from the past.
The main source of pressure on markets is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important global routes for oil transport. If this situation persists, the impact will not be limited to rising oil prices, but will generate additional inflationary pressures, slow global economic growth and, in some cases, could push certain economies towards recession.
The US dollar emerges as the main beneficiary of these developments. As a safe-haven asset, it attracts massive capital flows during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. At the same time, the United States' position as a net exporter of oil and liquefied natural gas offers an additional advantage: rising energy prices support GDP growth while reducing exposure to imported inflation.
European currencies, especially the euro, are under pressure. The eurozone is heavily dependent on energy imports and was forced to diversify its supply chains after stopping imports from Russia, making it particularly exposed to sharp increases in oil and LNG prices. Most European states entered March with unusually low gas stocks: approximately 30% at EU level, around 20% in Germany and below 10% in the Netherlands. In this context, Qatar's role becomes essential, representing approximately 15% of Europe's total LNG imports, but the halt of its deliveries amplifies market pressure.