Business Forum • 28 January, 2026 at 1:16 PM
The Confidex index has dropped from 51.3 to 47.2 compared to the previous edition, marking the largest decrease since the study's launch with nearly 7 percentage points, returning to a level comparable to H1 2021.
The Confidex study is the only longitudinal study in Romania that has measured business confidence in the national economy for over five years. The study has been conducted since 2020 by Impetum Group, gathering a community of over 4,500 entrepreneurs and business people from Romania. The 13th edition of Confidex was conducted in partnership with Romanian Business Leaders (RBL).
The recent evolution of the Confidex index reflects a context marked by political and economic instability at international level, geopolitical volatility, regional macroeconomic pressures, as well as lack of legislative and fiscal predictability locally. At the same time, expectations regarding budget adjustments and diminishing public investments contribute to accentuating the sentiment of caution in the business environment.
In the last six months, 40% of Romanian managers participating in the study declare that their company's situation has worsened. Optimism regarding the state of the economy is declining, and most respondents declare themselves dissatisfied with the evolution of their own businesses, either due to performance deterioration or stagnation. However, 30% of respondents anticipate that company status and profitability will continue to decline in 2026.
Sectoral analysis reveals differences between domains. Agriculture and the IT sector are among the most pessimistic, being affected by cost volatility, dependence on regulations and external pressures. At the opposite pole, Services and Commerce position themselves as the most optimistic sectors, supported by relatively stable demand and greater capacity to adapt to market conditions.
Regarding expectations for the next six months, Confidex results outline a macroeconomic picture dominated by accentuated caution. Romanian managers remain reserved regarding economic evolution and investments. For the next six months, 78% of managers expect the legislative and fiscal environment to become less business-friendly, while only 3% anticipate a favourable evolution. However, confidence in the Government increases significantly - from 3% in H1 2025 to 18% in the current edition.
"Confidex is more necessary today than ever, in a context marked by persistent economic and fiscal uncertainties. Despite pressures, it seems an essential signal is emerging: Romania's business environment has become more mature. The increase in Government confidence indicates a lucid understanding that macroeconomic balancing involves difficult decisions. Entrepreneurs appear mentally prepared to move forward, even in a difficult context, because they know that long-term stability is built through adaptation and consistency," declares Andrei Cionca, CEO Impetum Group.