The Consumer Credit Reference Index (IRCC), used for calculating variable interest rates, is expected to reach approximately 6% in Q4 2025, up from its current 5.55%.

Furthermore, average fixed interest rates for new mortgages in Bucharest are estimated to climb to around 5.95% in H2 2025, compared to a current level of approximately 5.45%.

This increase will translate to a higher monthly payment of roughly RON 90 (€18.09) for a new €70,000 mortgage taken out over 25 years with a 15% down payment.

However, by the end of 2025, the monthly payment will still be about RON 90 (€18.09) lower than that recorded in the summer of 2024.

Alexandru Rădulescu, Managing Partner at SVN Romania | Credit & Financial Solutions, stated: "Mortgage rates will increase by the end of the year because the inflation rate has remained high, with the National Bank maintaining its monetary policy interest rate at 6.5%. On the other hand, despite these increases, fixed rates will continue to be far more attractive compared to variable ones and will be at least 1% lower than those recorded in 2023."

The analysis also shows that the fixed-rate period for tens of thousands of mortgages contracted in late 2022 and early 2023 will expire by the end of this year and in the first months of 2026. Nevertheless, the estimated average fixed rates for the end of the current year are still lower compared to those in 2022-2023.