Business Forum • 19 June, 2025 at 4:21 PM
The Macroeconomic confidence index, compiled by the CFA Romania Association, registered a significant increase in May 2025, rising by 11.5 points to a value of 44.9 points.
This surge is primarily attributed to a substantial 15.2-point rise in the expectations component of the index, while the current conditions component also saw a 4.3-point increase.
Adrian Codirlașu, CFA, President of the CFA Romania Association, stated: “With the risk of a presidential election outcome that would have led Romania towards euroscepticism having disappeared, the confidence indicator strongly increased in May. However, the risk to the Romanian economy remains high, primarily due to the unsustainable budget deficit. In the context of uncertainty, especially fiscal uncertainty, the economy is anticipated to grow modestly, with a recession scenario for this year not being excluded.”
The anticipated inflation rate for a 12-month horizon (June 2026) has increased to 4.87% compared to March.
Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, approximately 70% of participants expect a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months, with the average anticipated value for a 12-month horizon being RON 5.1723 for one euro.
Analysts' forecasts for key macroeconomic indicators include a projected GDP growth of 1.0% for 2025, a budget deficit of 7.7% of GDP, and public debt anticipated to increase to 59% of GDP in the next 12 months.
In the residential property market, 60% of participants foresee stagnation in urban residential property prices over the next 12 months, while 25% anticipate a decrease.
Furthermore, 60% of participants consider current property prices to be overvalued, with 35% deeming them correctly valued.
Interestingly, 74% of participants anticipate Romania maintaining its investment-grade rating in the next 12 months, an increase from the previous exercise, while 26% expect a downgrade to "junk" status.