Economy | 12 September, 2025 at 3:08 PM
IMF cuts growth forecast for Romania
The IMF projects that Romania's economy will grow by 1% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, according to a report released at the end of a mission in the country.
The IMF projects that Romania's economy will grow by 1% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, according to a report released at the end of a mission in the country.
Romania's economy has secured the third-highest GDP growth rate in the EU during Q2, according to Eurostat.
Romania's consolidated general budget execution closed the first seven months of 2025 with a nominal deficit of RON 76.44 billion (€15.34 billion), an increase of RON 5.4 billion.
Romania's GDP recorded an increase in Q2 2025, according to flash estimates from the National Institute of Statistics (INS).
Romania's fiscal package is expected to have a substantial budgetary impact, estimated at 1.1% of GDP this year and 3.5% in 2026, finds an analysis by Fitch Ratings.
Romania is moving closer to achieving fiscal-budgetary rebalancing, according to a recent report by the international rating agency Moody's.
Inflation will increase over the planned fiscal package announced by Romania's Government, which includes the increase of fuel excises.
Romania's budget deficit stood at 3.39% of GDP after the first five months of 2025, a slight decrease compared to 3.41% of GDP in the similar period last year.
The Macroeconomic confidence index, compiled by the CFA Romania Association, registered a significant increase in May 2025, rising by 11.5 points to a value of 44.9 points.
The Romanian economy is projected to grow by 1.3% this year, a decrease from the 2.1% forecast in January, according to the latest World Bank report on global economies.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has cut its 2025 growth forecast for its regions by 0.2 percentage points to 3.0%, with a moderate rebound to 3.4% expected in 2026. This follows a similar downgrade in February and reflects mounting global headwinds, including rising trade policy uncertainty, softening external demand, and newly imposed tariffs.
The EBRD has slightly revised its forecasts for the Romanian economy's growth in 2025 but maintained its predictions for 2026, according to a recent report.
Romania recorded the highest government deficit among EU member states in 2024, standing at -9.3% of GDP.
Private pension funds in Romania accumulated assets worth RON 156.44 billion (€31.1 billion) by the end of December 2024.
The 2025 landscape is marked by geopolitical tensions and the upcoming Romanian presidential elections, contributing to a cautious business environment.
On a gross basis, compared with the same quarter in 2023, GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024 increased by 0.7%.
The bulk of this debt, RON 772.92 billion, was government securities. Borrowing amounted to RON 143.42 billion.
Investment, especially in Poland and Romania, is expected to improve on the back of structural reforms and delayed EU funds.
On the seasonally adjusted series, the estimated GDP for the third quarter of 2024 was RON 446.176 billion at current prices.
The bulk of this debt, RON 780.243 billion, was government securities. Borrowing amounted to RON 131.258 billion.
The IMF projects that Romania's economy will grow by 1% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, according to a report released at the end of a mission in the country.
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