The economic slowdown is expected to continue into 2026, with a revised growth forecast of 1.3%, down from the previous 1.9%.

The report attributes the subdued growth to several domestic factors, most notably a fiscal consolidation package that includes a freeze on public wages and pensions, along with higher taxes. 

This has put pressure on household spending, with private consumption growth projected to slow to around 1.1% in 2025, a sharp decline from the 5% average between 2000 and 2024. The impact of this is already visible in key indicators: retail sales volume grew by only 3.1% from January to July, compared to almost 9% in 2024, and new car registrations dropped by 22% in the first half of the year.

Meanwhile, the bank projects a modest recovery in 2027, with the economy expected to grow by 2.5%. 

Romania, with a fiscal deficit that exceeded 9% of GDP last year, is expected to see this figure fall below 6% of GDP by 2026 as a result of the fiscal package.