IMF cuts growth forecast for Romania

Business Forum

12 September, 2025 at 3:08 PM

The IMF projects that Romania's economy will grow by 1% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, according to a report released at the end of a mission in the country.

The latest forecast represents a decrease from the spring forecasts of 1.6% and 2.8%, respectively.

“This moderation is driven by temporarily high inflation and the effects of fiscal consolidation. Inflation is anticipated to remain elevated over the next 12 months before falling below the National Bank of Romania's (BNR) tolerance band by the end of 2026," according to an IMF statement.

The IMF estimates that the risks to the economic outlook are decreasing for growth but increasing for inflation. The international financial institution also notes that the risk of a sovereign rating downgrade for Romania remains. This is due to persistent concerns over the implementation of planned fiscal consolidation in 2025-2026 and the medium-term sustainability of public finances, stemming from the still-high fiscal deficit.

However, robust implementation of fiscal adjustments and European-funded investment projects could bolster investor confidence and reduce risk premiums faster than anticipated.

Romania's inflation hits 10.85% in May 2026

Romania's annual inflation rate climbed to 10.85% in May from 10.71% in April, driven by rising costs across all sectors, according to data released by the National Institute of Statistics (INS).

Economy

EC slashes Romania's growth forecast to 0.1%

The European Commission has significantly reduced its estimates for Romanian economic growth this year to 0.1%, down from 1.1% estimated in autumn, while the inflation rate is expected to reach 7%, compared to the previously announced level below 6%, according to spring economic forecasts published Thursday.

Economy

Romania's inflation to spike in Q2 2026, says central bank

Romania's central bank announced on Friday that annual inflation will rise above previously forecast levels in Q2 2026, but will experience a substantial downward correction in Q3.

Finance

Romania's central bank holds key rate at 6.50%

Romania's National Bank (BNR) board decided to maintain the monetary policy interest rate at 6.50% per year during Tuesday's meeting.

Economy

Romanian inflation sticks close to 10% in December 2025

Romania's annual inflation rate decreased to 9.69% in December from 9.76% in November, according to data published by the National Institute of Statistics (INS).

Economy

National Bank of Romania keeps key rate at 6.50% amid high inflation

The National Bank of Romania (NBR) has decided to keep its monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50% per annum, following a meeting of its Board on October 8.

Economy

Romanian central bank maintains key rate at 6.50%

The Board of the National Bank of Romania (BNR) decided on Friday to maintain the monetary policy interest rate at 6.50% per year.

LATEST NEWS

11 Sep

Speedwell appoints new Development Director in Romania

9 Sep

Bucharest yields remain well above Western European levels

8 Sep

Romania's residential market slows down

2 Sep

Colliers reports 12% construction growth in Romania

27 Aug

Cordia says Bucharest offers value for regional investors

RECOMMENDED FROM THE HOME PAGE

Real estate

Bucharest yields remain well above Western European levels

Bucharest is consolidating its position within the Central and Eastern European (CEE) real estate market, combining rental growth across major asset classes with investment yields that remain well above Western European levels, according to the DNA of Real Estate Europe Q2 2026 report published by Cushman & Wakefield. Across Europe in Q2 2026, prime office rents rose 4.5% year-on-year, retail rents increased 3.0%, and logistics rents grew 2.4%, while investors remained selective as yield movements pointed to a more balanced market following the repricing cycle of recent years.

Energy

Electrica secures grid permits for 700 MWh of storage

Energy company Electrica informs investors and the capital market that it has obtained the technical grid connection permits (ATR) for 17 new battery energy storage projects (BESS), with a total capacity of approximately 700 MWh.

Finance

Kearney study: The next phase for banks in Romania after the era of high interest rates

The European Retail Banking Radar, Kearney's latest study now in its 18th edition, shows that Europe is entering a period of normalisation following the conditions of 2023–2025. For Romania, the challenge extends beyond the normalisation of interest rates.

Energy

Romanian grid operator to support peak power consumption during heatwave

Romania's national electricity transmission network operator, Transelectrica, has halted scheduled maintenance shutdowns to ensure the grid operates at maximum capacity during an ongoing extreme heatwave. The preventive measures aim to mitigate operational risks associated with severe weather conditions.

Finance

Digi Communications backs Spanish subsidiary IPO

Digi Spain has announced its intention to launch an initial public offering (IPO) on the Spanish stock exchanges, aiming to raise approximately €150 million.

POPULAR

Economy

3 months ago

Romania halves budget deficit to 1.75% of GDP on five months

Economy

3 months ago

Romania records highest inflation in the EU in May 2026

Economy

3 months ago

Romanian regulator clears Carrefour sale to Pavăl Holding

Economy

3 months ago