National Bank of Romania keeps key rate at 6.50% amid high inflation

Business Forum
The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has decided to keep its monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50% per annum, following a meeting of its Board on October 8.

This decision also maintains the lending (Lombard) facility rate at 7.50% and the deposit facility rate at 5.50%. 

The Board also chose to maintain the current minimum reserve requirement ratios for both RON- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions.

The decision comes as Romania faces elevated inflation, largely driven by two successive supply-side shocks. In July 2025, the annual inflation rate surged to 7.84% from 5.66% in June, and further rose to 9.85% in August, surpassing forecasts. This was a direct result of the expiry of the electricity price capping scheme on July 1 and the hike in VAT rates and excise duties implemented on August 1. 

Despite the inflationary spike, economic activity saw a "significantly swifter advance" in Q2 2025, growing by 1.2% after a slowdown to 0.1% in the previous quarter. This growth, however, was accompanied by a loss of momentum in domestic demand, as household consumption declined and gross fixed capital formation slipped back into negative territory. By contrast, net exports saw a significant reduction in their contractionary impact.

The BNR anticipates that the annual inflation rate will plateau at the end of Q3 and decrease very slowly over the following three months. The central bank views the fiscal and budgetary measures adopted in July as a likely source of "increasingly stronger underlying disinflationary pressures over the longer horizon".

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