Romanian businesses expect economic slowdown in early 2026

Business Forum
Romanian business managers across key sectors forecast a moderate decline in economic activity for December 2025 to February 2026, according to the latest business tendency survey from the National Institute of Statistics (INS).

Manufacturing sector managers predict a moderate decrease in production volume over the next three months, with a balance of -8.7%. Employment is also expected to decline moderately with a balance of -6.3%, while industrial product prices are forecast to grow significantly with a balance of +24.6%.

The construction sector shows the most pessimistic outlook, with managers forecasting a production volume decrease reflected by a balance of -24.5%. Employment in construction is expected to fall with 17.5% of managers predicting workforce reductions, resulting in a balance of -15.1%. Construction work prices are anticipated to rise substantially, with a balance of +35.3%.

Retail trade managers estimate a moderate turnover decrease for the coming months with a balance of -6.6%. However, the sector expects slight employment growth with a balance of +10.7%. Price increases are widely anticipated, with 35.2% of respondents forecasting growth compared to only 1.8% expecting decreases, creating a balance of +33.4%.

The services sector shows relative stability with turnover forecasts indicating a balance of -4.2%. Employment levels are expected to remain largely unchanged with a balance of -3.6%, while service prices are predicted to grow with a balance of +17.5%. The survey results reflect business managers' estimates and should not be interpreted as statistical growth rates.

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