World Bank lowers Romania's growth estimate for 2025

Business Forum

11 June, 2025 at 3:04 PM

The Romanian economy is projected to grow by 1.3% this year, a decrease from the 2.1% forecast in January, according to the latest World Bank report on global economies.

Furthermore, Romania's GDP growth in 2026 is expected to be 1.9%, down from the 2.6% predicted at the start of 2025. Economic growth is anticipated to improve in 2027, reaching 2.5%.

Unlike other regions and despite a challenging external environment, economic growth in Central Europe is forecast to strengthen to 2.4% in 2025, according to the report.

”Global growth is slowing due to a substantial rise in trade barriers and the pervasive effects of an uncertain global policy environment. Growth is expected to weaken to 2.3% in 2025, with deceleration in most
economies relative to last year. This would mark the slowest rate of global growth since 2008, aside from outright global recessions," reads the report.

The financial institution concluded that a further 10% increase in US tariffs, on top of the 10% already implemented, coupled with a tariff response from other countries, could erase another 0.5 percentage points from the 2025 forecast.

At the same time, the World Bank estimates that global inflation is expected to reach 2.9% in 2025.

Romania's inflation remains steady in April 2025

Romania's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased marginally by 0.07% compared to March 2025, while the annual inflation rate reached 4.9% by April 2025, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INS).

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EBRD downgrades 2025 growth forecast for most CEE countries

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has cut its 2025 growth forecast for its regions by 0.2 percentage points to 3.0%, with a moderate rebound to 3.4% expected in 2026. This follows a similar downgrade in February and reflects mounting global headwinds, including rising trade policy uncertainty, softening external demand, and newly imposed tariffs.