Romania's GDP is expected to grow by 1.6% this year, 0.2 percentage points lower than the 1.8% estimate made in February, and to expand by 2.4% in 2026.

“The growth of the Romanian economy slowed significantly to 0.8% in 2024. Private consumption recorded solid growth, following an 8% increase in real wages, which led to a deepening of the trade deficit. Consumption is showing signs of moderation at the beginning of 2025. Investments have decreased significantly, especially in the last quarter, due to the slowdown in the absorption of European funds. Regarding the supply side, the slowdown was broad-based, with industry, services and construction recording considerable declines, while agriculture was severely affected by drought,” the report states.

The EBRD pointed out that “the fiscal situation remains difficult, and the planned fiscal consolidation this year will probably require additional measures, due to the worse-than-expected developments in 2024. Despite a slight moderation, inflation remains high, close to 5%, requiring the tightening of monetary policy by the National Bank of Romania (BNR).'

According to the EBRD, the Romanian economy has limited exposure to the US economy but has a considerable level of integration into global supply chains in the automotive industry, which represents a vulnerability.

In 2026, the growth rate will return close to potential, at 2.4%, assuming there will be an acceleration in the absorption of EU funds, according to the report.