"Regarding future macroeconomic developments, Council members indicated that, according to new data and analyses, the annual inflation rate will rise and remain in the March-June 2026 interval at higher values than those highlighted in the medium-term forecast from February 2026," the BNR minutes state. The February forecast anticipated inflation would reach 9.8% in June, followed by a sharp downward correction in the following quarter due to base effects, then gradually reduce to 3.9% in December 2026 and 2.9% by the end of 2027.

The central bank attributed the worsening near-term inflation outlook to supply-side factors and shocks, which will become more pronounced in Q2 2026 than previously anticipated. This is primarily due to fuel price increases following considerable rises in oil and natural gas quotations amid the Middle East conflict.

The inflationary effects will precede opposing influences from the natural gas pricing mechanism for household consumers established in April 2026. These effects will overlap with unfavorable base effects in the energy segment during Q2 2026, as well as direct transitory effects from the expiration of electricity price capping schemes and increases in VAT rates and excise duties from H2 2025, which are expected to fade in Q3 2026.