The GDP is projected to reach RON 2.056 billion in 2026, according to the Projection of Main Macroeconomic Indicators 2026-2029.

"Macroeconomic perspectives have been developed in a difficult geopolitical context, with uncertainties amplified by the intensification of the Middle East conflict, which led to a major energy shock on the global market," the commission noted. The inflationary effect from rising fuel prices combined with domestic efforts to correct macroeconomic imbalances through continued fiscal consolidation measures has deteriorated current year prospects.

The downward revision also reflects disappointing Q1 data from the National Statistics Institute, showing GDP contracted 1.7% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. High-frequency indicators from the first three months, particularly those reflecting household consumption such as retail trade and population services, also underperformed expectations.

On the supply side, the commission expects continued contraction in industrial added value, a trend observed over the past four years. Rising costs, especially energy costs, have led to competitiveness losses, delaying recovery.

The services sector also faces challenges, with fiscal consolidation measures particularly affecting consumer-oriented services. However, construction remains the most dynamic sector, supported by engineering works stimulated by European fund absorption and a recovery in residential construction.