By 2027, Romania's GDP is expected to grow by 2.3%, while the inflation rate should fall to 3.7%. "After growth of 0.7% in 2025, Romania's economy is expected to stagnate broadly in 2026, before recovering to 2.3% in 2027. Fiscal consolidation efforts and persistently high inflation, driven by rising energy prices, are expected to significantly reduce domestic consumption," the EC stated.
The recovery is supported by expectations of lower inflation and more favourable financing conditions. The unemployment rate will rise moderately in 2026 before falling in 2027. The current account deficit is projected to fall to 6.4% of GDP in 2027, while the general government deficit is expected to ease from 7.9% of GDP in 2025 to 6.2% in 2026 and 5.8% in 2027.
After a recovery in 2025, gross fixed capital formation is expected to accelerate further in 2026. Recovery in the residential construction sector should continue, while public infrastructure investments are set to increase due to completion of Recovery and Resilience Facility projects. However, increased investor distrust due to geopolitical risks and domestic political uncertainties will likely affect private investments in H1 2026.
Government debt is projected to increase from under 55% of GDP in 2024 to approximately 63% of GDP in 2027, driven mainly by high deficits and interest payments. "Internal risks to growth are tilted to the downside, with increased domestic political instability undermining investor confidence in the fiscal adjustment path," the EC noted.
