The hard frequency data has been consistent with third-quarter economic stagnation. Retail sales contracted by 0.2% annually, industrial production expanded by 0.5%, while construction activity will probably show robust expansion once the full data set for the third quarter is released.
The labour market is showing mild signs of weakness, as the number of employees in the economy declined in September for the sixth consecutive month, and wage growth is drifting towards low single digits. This combination should keep a lid on private consumption in the near term, with real wage growth likely to stay negative for a few more quarters.
"Today's data would normally lead us to an upward revision of the full-year growth estimate for 2025 (currently at 0.3%), closer to the 0.8% average growth for the first nine months," said Valentin Tătaru, Chief Economist for Romania at ING Bank Romania.
ING maintains its forecast for 2026 at 1.4% which, after today's data, looks less like a mildly optimistic view and more like a plausible central scenario. Data revisions remain likely as the gross and chain-linked series should eventually converge.
