Following the country's sharpest quarterly GDP contraction since 2012 (excluding the pandemic), the bank has revised its 2026 growth forecast down to 0.6% from a previous estimate of 1.4%.
The downward revision follows flash GDP data showing the economy expanded by a modest 0.6% in 2025. Analysts noted that a 1.9% contraction in Q4 2025 has created a substantial "negative carryover effect" into the current year.
While public investments likely prevented a deeper downturn, weak private consumption and diminishing private investment were identified as the primary drivers of the slowdown.
Valentin Tătaru, Chief Economist, Romania at ING and Ștefan Posea, Economist, Romania at ING wrote: "The message from this flash GDP data release is clear: the economy ended 2025 in visible distress. Under these conditions, our previous 2026 growth estimate of 1.4% now looks optimistic, even though it was already at the lower end of most estimates. Assuming no further data revisions—a big assumption—the economy will have to work hard just to stay in positive territory."
Looking ahead, consumer demand is expected to remain subdued as real wages stay negative through the first half of 2026. However, analysts point to a potential record year for EU fund inflows and the peak of the investment cycle as factors that could boost productive capacity and support activity later in 2027.
