Business Forum • 24 November, 2025 at 8:39 AM
The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator compiled by CFA Romania Association fell by 7.3 points in October 2025, reflecting continued economic uncertainty in the country.
Both components of the index registered significant declines. The expectations component dropped 7.8 points to 29.2, while the current conditions component fell 6.3 points to 32.3. Adrian Codirlaşu, CFA and President of CFA Romania Association, said: "In line with economic developments, the confidence indicator continued to decline. It is noteworthy that, for the first time in this inflationary episode, expectations for inflation evolution over the next 12 months have decreased compared to the previous exercise."
The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (November 2026) decreased to 6.26%, with 75% of participants expecting inflation to fall over the next 12 months. Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, approximately 83% of participants anticipate leu depreciation over the next 12 months, with the average forecast reaching 5.2045 lei per euro for the 12-month horizon.
Economic growth expectations for 2025 have been revised down to an average of 0.6%, while 2026 growth is anticipated to remain below 1%. The budget deficit is forecast at 8.3% of GDP for 2025 and 7% for 2026. Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 62% over the next 12 months.
Regarding residential property prices in cities, 54% of participants anticipate stagnation over the next 12 months, while 67% consider current prices overvalued. Despite economic challenges, approximately 96% of participants expect Romania to maintain its investment-grade rating over the next 12 months.