The conflict impacts markets primarily through oil logistics, especially the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global maritime oil trade. If oil stabilises below $90 per barrel, the impact may stay contained; if it holds above $90, it can become a macro shock.
A prolonged disruption in Hormuz could add 0.5-1 percentage point to global inflation, increasing the odds that central banks keep rates elevated longer, typically negative for equities, particularly in Europe.
Following the 28 February strikes and the sudden disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, markets had mixed reactions: oil prices rose sharply, gold strengthened, and stock futures fell.
"The events surrounding Iran are not just another geopolitical crisis. They are a test for the entire current market structure, which is based on expectations of lower inflation and future easing of central bank policy," explained Radu-Iulian Pădurean, Network Development Manager at Freedom24.
Modern warfare creates demand not only for traditional defence manufacturers, but for a broader ecosystem spanning classic defence contractors, drones and autonomous systems, AI and cybersecurity, space and satellite infrastructure, energy generation and power-grid equipment, and oil and energy producers. Meanwhile, airlines face rising fuel costs, consumer sectors feel pressure from higher petrol prices, and high-risk small-cap technology stocks tend to underperform as capital rotates into defensive assets.
