"The conjunctural balance indicates the perception of business managers on the dynamics of a phenomenon that should NOT be confused with the rate of growth or decline of any statistical indicator produced by the NSI. The percentage conjunctural balance is obtained as the difference between the percentage of managers who chose the positive variant of the phenomenon and the percentage of those who indicated the negative variant", the INS data show.

Manufacturing

In the December 2024 business cycle survey, managers in the manufacturing industry forecast a moderate decrease in the volume of production (conjunctural balance -13%) for the next three months.

With regard to the number of employees, a moderate decrease is expected, the conjunctural balance -8%.

Industrial product prices are forecast to increase over the next three months (conjunctural balance +19%).

Construction

According to the December 2024 estimates, construction activity is expected to show a decrease in production volume for the next three months (conjunctural balance -19%).

Managers estimate a moderate decrease in the number of employees (conjunctural balance -9%). As for the prices of construction works, they are expected to increase (conjunctural balance +24%).

Retail 

In the retail trade sector, managers forecast a relatively stable trend of economic activity for the next three months (conjunctural balance -4%).

The volume of orders placed with suppliers of goods by commercial establishments will increase moderately (conjunctural balance +7%).

Employers forecast a moderate increase in the number of employees for the next three months (conjunctural balance +12%). Business managers expect an increase in retail sales prices (cyclical balance +35%).

Services

According to the December 2024 forecast, services demand (turnover) is expected to remain relatively stable over the next three months (cyclical balance +2%).

Managers in the services sector expect the number of employees to remain relatively stable (trend balance 0%). According to the managers' opinion, the selling or invoicing prices of services will tend to increase (conjunctural balance +17%).