This surge has led ING Bank Romania to revise its year-end inflation forecast for 2025 to 6.0%, according to a bank report.

The May inflation figure surpassed both ING's above-consensus expectation of 5.4% and the broader market consensus of 5.3%. The bank anticipates a gradual decline in inflation to 4.3% by December 2026.

Stefan Posea, Economist, Romania at ING, wrote: "Our base case is now for just one 25bp rate cut from the National Bank of Romania in its last meeting of the year in November, with risks for delays towards 2026." 

The central bank cut the interest rate to 6.50% in August 2024 and has avoided additional reductions since then.

In the latest report, food inflation saw a monthly advance of 0.9%, with fresh fruits being the primary contributor, followed by sugar and coffee products. Potato prices alone rose by nearly 10% within the month. Services inflation also increased by 0.6%, with phone contracts showing a notable pick-up due to exchange rate exposure.

In year-on-year terms, food inflation accelerated significantly to 6.5% (from 5.6% in April), while non-food inflation reached 4.0% and services inflation hit 7.0%.

Further inflationary pressure could come from the deregulation of electricity prices for households, which will be enforced starting July.