The forecast is influenced by persistent price pressures from various sources, including fiscal measures like VAT and excise hikes, and the expiry of the electricity price cap.

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) is anticipated to maintain a cautious approach, keeping the key policy rate at 6.50%. The bank's decision is driven by the need to prioritise stability amid weakening consumption and uncertain growth prospects. Despite the elevated inflation profile and negative real interest rates, the NBR is not expected to raise rates, as a rate hike is seen as unnecessary given the projected easing of inflation next year.

Economists at ING believe the current inflationary phase will be short-lived, supported by signs of weakening private consumption and wage dynamics, as well as subdued consumer sentiment. The forecast also takes into account a continued easing in global oil prices and a strong domestic agricultural season, which should limit food inflation. 

ING expects the NBR to hold its policy rate steady until at least May 2026, with a gradual easing cycle potentially beginning thereafter. By the end of 2026, they project the policy rate will be at 5.50%.