Food prices rose 7.6% annually, the slowest among main components, while non-food goods and services posted double-digit increases in the 10.5%-11.0% range. Services inflation remains high, with hospitality sectors seeing some of the fastest price increases. The resilience in core components suggests the gap between core and headline inflation could narrow in coming months.

ING maintains its inflation forecasts at 9.6% for end-2025 and 4.5% for end-2026. Inflation should stay above 9% until mid-2026, with base effects turning favourable only from July 2026 when mid-2025 tax hikes drop out of annual comparisons. Two key uncertainties remain: the government's natural gas price cap expires in March 2026, and temporary caps on basic food item mark-ups will eventually be lifted.

Wage growth slowed to 4.1% year-on-year in September, representing a considerable drop in real incomes after accounting for inflation. "With households' purchasing power eroded, we assume that private consumption becomes a disinflationary force in the coming quarters," said Valentin Tătaru, ING's Chief Economist for Romania. This weakening demand should aid the disinflation process.

ING expects the National Bank of Romania to look through current above-target inflation and forecasts a first 25 basis point rate cut in May 2026, followed by cumulative 100 basis point cuts in 2026. The inflation profile should support a relatively stable exchange rate, with EUR/RON unlikely to move significantly from the 5.10 level over the next couple of years.