Romania's central bank expects inflation near 10% in September

Business Forum

13 August, 2025 at 1:00 PM

Romania's inflation rate is expected to reach a peak of 9.6-9.7% in September, and will likely remain above 9% by the end of the year, according to data by Mugur Isărescu, the Governor of the National Bank of Romania (BNR).

Due to the spike in inflation, which reached 7.84% in July 2025, the BNR decided to hold the key rate at 6.50%.

The liberalisation of the electricity market is projected to add 2 percentage points to the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate. Additionally, increases in VAT are expected to contribute 1.6 percentage points, while higher excise duties will add another 0.4 percentage points, according to central bank estimates.

“Three major shocks are set to be absorbed in the coming period. If we can avoid secondary effects, it won't be easy to curb inflationary expectations after such significant price increases,” said Isărescu in a press brief.

Going forward, the BNR expects the inflation rate to fall gradually to 7.9% by Q2 2026, after which it should start a faster decrease to less than 3% by Q2 2027.

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