In his opinion, the commissioning of the Iernut power plant, several photovoltaic panel parks and the significant increase in the number of prosumers, which could double this year, are important in the energy sector.
Also, the increase in gas storage capacity is another important element.
The president of the Intelligent Energy Association believes that although crude oil prices in 2025 may remain at the price level of this period, the pump price will increase as a result of the excise tax increase. "Cap or no cap after April 1, 2025? An answer hard to predict," Chisăliță notes.
He argues, on the other hand, that if the cap on energy prices is maintained, natural gas tariffs will remain at the same level, but for electricity "at most two price levels will be set, probably RON 1.3/kWh including VAT for consumption above 255 kWh/month and RON 0.8/kWh including VAT for consumption below 255 kWh/month".
"If the caps are removed, starting April 1, 2025, and a minimum preparation for market liberalization is carried out, natural gas consumers will probably pay the same prices as the capped prices, and for electricity they will pay prices that will be in the range of RON 1.03 - 1.15/kWh including VAT. This means a decrease in the price of electricity by about 21% for consumers consuming more than 255 kWh/month and an increase in the price of electricity by 51% for those consuming less than 100 kWh/month (an average increase of about RON 17.6/month on the electricity bill)," the energy specialist explains.
According to him, there are ongoing projects in the natural gas sector to increase the injection, storage and extraction capacity of natural gas storage deposits. Thus, in 2025 - 2026, the storage capacity is to increase from 3.2 bcm to 5 bcm, with an increase in injection capacity from 22 million cubic meters per day to approx. 50 mil cubic meters/day. Chisăliță said that when these projects are completed, Romania will significantly increase its energy security, becoming the safest country in the EU in terms of gas delivery security to end consumers.
The AEI president also says that the funds made available to consumers for the installation of photovoltaic panels through the Green House and PNRR programs will cover about 128,000 prosumers in 2025. Thus, the total number of prosumers would reach about 300,000 prosumers with an installed capacity of about 2,900 MW.
Chisăliță also notes that of the 880 photovoltaic projects with a cumulative capacity of about 46,600 MW in various stages of development, 25 with a total capacity of about 8,000 MW are scheduled to be completed in 2025, thus increasing the capacity of electricity production from photovoltaic energy to a level of about 9,000 MW.
"These PV-based power generation capacities will bring multiple challenges in ensuring the reliable operation of the power system. Part of these problems will be solved with the completion in 2025 of the Iernut natural gas-fired power plant, which will produce and inject up to 430 MWh into the system on an hourly basis," the energy specialist says.
He reminds that studies, including safety, non-proliferation and cyber and information security standards for the SMR Doicești nuclear project are to be finalized in 2025, which should allow an analysis of the possibility of siting SMR in this area, an updated cost estimate for the project, as well as all the nuclear safety and security analyses related to the project, necessary for the final investment decision. Depending on the conclusions of the study, it will be possible to determine Romania's future energy directions, Chisăliță believes.
"Even if these projects will be realized, Romania will need to launch in 2025 extensive programs of Resilience, Restructuring, Energy Reconstruction of Romania," concludes the AEI president.
