Despite the announcement of a 25% tariff on European products, the euro remains strong due to capital inflows into European stocks, which are currently trading at a 33% discount compared to American stocks. Additionally, rising yield rates in the European bond market, a factor typically associated with a stronger currency, continue to support the euro.
For Romanian exporters, these tariffs pose significant challenges, as trade with the U.S. has been steadily growing in recent years. The United States is Romania's second-largest non-EU trading partner, after the United Kingdom.
Exports of Romania to United States have increased at an annualized rate of 2.94%, from $2.64 billion in 2018 to $3.84 billion in 2023. In 2024, Romania exported $3.91 billion worth of goods to the U.S. and imported $1.26 billion, according to the United States Census Bureau. This resulted in a trade surplus of $2.65 billion for Romania.
However, under the new tariff structure, Romanian exporters could face barriers to accessing the U.S. market. These tariffs threaten the competitiveness of Romanian products, adding further strain to an industrial sector already struggling with economic challenges. If implemented, this measure could significantly impact companies' profitability and export volumes.
On the other hand, this prohibitive tariff also negatively impacts American pharmaceutical companies that manufacture in Europe—particularly in Ireland—to avoid U.S. corporate taxes. This tax optimization strategy has been a major contributor to the European trade surplus. The United States is Ireland's largest export market, receiving 30% of its products, according to the French Ministry of Economy.
Potential Consequence
American companies may relocate production to more favorable locations, such as Singapore, which remains unaffected by current U.S. tariff policies. This shift could reconfigure global supply chains, impacting both European and American industries.
