However, concerns about Romania's economic stability persist, primarily revolving around the risk of a credit rating downgrade. Adrian Codirlașu, CFA and President of the CFA Romania Association, highlighted the unsustainability of the country's twin deficits, emphasizing the looming threat of being reclassified into the “junk” category for investments.
This potential downgrade is closely linked to the necessity for fiscal consolidation, which rating agencies have urged Romania to undertake to bring the budget deficit back to a sustainable level within a reasonable timeframe.
Despite these concerns, the survey indicates that 82% of participants anticipate Romania will maintain its investment-grade rating over the next 12 months, while 18% foresee a downgrade to the “junk” category.
The survey also provided insights into other macroeconomic indicators. The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (April 2026) has decreased to 4.65%. Additionally, 79% of participants predict a depreciation of the Romanian leu against the euro in the next year, with expectations for the EUR/RON exchange rate to reach 5.0311 in 6 months and 5.0735 in 12 months.
Regarding the real estate market, 61% of participants expect residential property prices in cities to stagnate in the coming year, while 29% anticipate a decline. Moreover, a significant 74% believe that current property prices are overvalued.
The survey also revealed that growth expectations for 2025 have decreased to an average of 1.0%, with some participants suggesting a possible recession for the Romanian economy. The state budget deficit for 2025 is projected to remain similar to the previous forecast, at an average expectation of 7.4% of GDP. Public debt is expected to increase to 58% of GDP in the next 12 months.
