CFA Indicator: Romanian confidence index drops as inflation fears persist

Business Forum
The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator compiled by CFA Romania Association fell by 7.3 points in October 2025, reflecting continued economic uncertainty in the country.

Both components of the index registered significant declines. The expectations component dropped 7.8 points to 29.2, while the current conditions component fell 6.3 points to 32.3. Adrian Codirlaşu, CFA and President of CFA Romania Association, said: "In line with economic developments, the confidence indicator continued to decline. It is noteworthy that, for the first time in this inflationary episode, expectations for inflation evolution over the next 12 months have decreased compared to the previous exercise."

The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (November 2026) decreased to 6.26%, with 75% of participants expecting inflation to fall over the next 12 months. Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, approximately 83% of participants anticipate leu depreciation over the next 12 months, with the average forecast reaching 5.2045 lei per euro for the 12-month horizon.

Economic growth expectations for 2025 have been revised down to an average of 0.6%, while 2026 growth is anticipated to remain below 1%. The budget deficit is forecast at 8.3% of GDP for 2025 and 7% for 2026. Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 62% over the next 12 months.

Regarding residential property prices in cities, 54% of participants anticipate stagnation over the next 12 months, while 67% consider current prices overvalued. Despite economic challenges, approximately 96% of participants expect Romania to maintain its investment-grade rating over the next 12 months.

RECOMMENDED
Romanias inflation remains steady in April 2025
Economy

Romania's inflation remains steady in April 2025

Romania's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased marginally by 0.07% compared to March 2025, while the annual inflation rate reached 4.9% by April 2025, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INS).

RECOMMENDED FROM THE HOME PAGE
Electro-Alfa plans IPO on BVB
Finance

Electro-Alfa plans IPO on BVB

Electro-Alfa International, a Romanian electrical equipment manufacturer, has announced plans for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB).

Industry

Life sciences M&A surges 81% as big pharma hunts for growth, says EY

Global life sciences M&A activity increased by 81% in 2025 to $240 billion, driven by Big Pharma's large-scale deals, despite fewer overall transactions. The surge reflects companies prioritising innovations ready for launch as they face widening growth gaps.

Finance

Romania launches first 2026 Fidelis bond IPO on stock exchange

Romania's Ministry of Finance will conduct its first public offering of Fidelis government bonds for 2026 between January 16 and 23 on the Bucharest Stock Exchange. This marks the 32nd offering since the Fidelis program resumed in July 2020.

READ MORE
Business Forum  |  16 January, 2026 at 5:00 PM
Business Forum  |  16 January, 2026 at 4:13 PM