Economy | 17 July, 2025 at 9:15 AM
Romania faces “mild recession” risk, says ING
Romania is bracing for a period of economic stagnation in 2025, with growth forecasts significantly dampened by new fiscal austerity measures.
Romania is bracing for a period of economic stagnation in 2025, with growth forecasts significantly dampened by new fiscal austerity measures.
Romania's fiscal package is expected to have a substantial budgetary impact, estimated at 1.1% of GDP this year and 3.5% in 2026, finds an analysis by Fitch Ratings.
The annual inflation rate in Romania rose to 5.7% in June 2025, up from 5.45% in May.
Inflation will increase over the planned fiscal package announced by Romania's Government, which includes the increase of fuel excises.
Romania's annual inflation rate climbed unexpectedly to 5.5% in May, up from 4.9% in April, driven primarily by increases in food and services prices.
The Romanian economy is projected to grow by 1.3% this year, a decrease from the 2.1% forecast in January, according to the latest World Bank report on global economies.
Inflation and energy prices are subjects of concern for more than half of Romanians, according to a recent European survey by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Romania's GDP is projected to expand modestly from 0.9% in 2024 to 1.2% in 2025, though significant downside risks, including geopolitical tensions, cloud this outlook, finds new research by ING Romania economists.
Romania continued to record the highest inflation rate in April, which was more than double compared to the euro area rate.
The Board of the National Bank of Romania (NBR) decided on Friday to maintain the key interest rate at 6.50%.
Romania's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased marginally by 0.07% compared to March 2025, while the annual inflation rate reached 4.9% by April 2025, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INS).
The EBRD has slightly revised its forecasts for the Romanian economy's growth in 2025 but maintained its predictions for 2026, according to a recent report.
The IMF has lowered its growth projections for the Romanian economy this year, according to its latest World Economic Outlook report published on Tuesday.
Romania's annual inflation rate fell to 4.86% in March 2025, down from 5.02% in February, according to data released on Friday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS).
The National Bank of Romania (BNR) decided on Monday to maintain the key interest rate at 6.5%, while warning that the inflation rate could pick up in Q2 2025 and the labor market remain unfazed.
Adjusting for inflation shows a more moderate increase of 52.1% over the last 10 years and 8.5% in the last year, indicating a market with a sustainable development.
Annual inflation rate will fluctuate sharply in the first semester of 2025 and in the second semester it will decrease on a higher trajectory than in the previous projection.
According to data presented in November 2024 by the governor of the National Bank of Romania (NBR), Mugur Isărescu, the inflation forecast for the end of 2025 is estimated at 3.5%.
The consumer price index in December 2024 compared to November 2024 was up by 0.29%.
Romania's economy has fallen short of expectations, note Colliers consultants, who initially predicted a promising local economic scenario for 2024 that failed to materialize.
Bucharest is consolidating its position within the Central and Eastern European (CEE) real estate market, combining rental growth across major asset classes with investment yields that remain well above Western European levels, according to the DNA of Real Estate Europe Q2 2026 report published by Cushman & Wakefield. Across Europe in Q2 2026, prime office rents rose 4.5% year-on-year, retail rents increased 3.0%, and logistics rents grew 2.4%, while investors remained selective as yield movements pointed to a more balanced market following the repricing cycle of recent years.
Energy company Electrica informs investors and the capital market that it has obtained the technical grid connection permits (ATR) for 17 new battery energy storage projects (BESS), with a total capacity of approximately 700 MWh.
The European Retail Banking Radar, Kearney's latest study now in its 18th edition, shows that Europe is entering a period of normalisation following the conditions of 2023–2025. For Romania, the challenge extends beyond the normalisation of interest rates.
Romania's national electricity transmission network operator, Transelectrica, has halted scheduled maintenance shutdowns to ensure the grid operates at maximum capacity during an ongoing extreme heatwave. The preventive measures aim to mitigate operational risks associated with severe weather conditions.
Digi Spain has announced its intention to launch an initial public offering (IPO) on the Spanish stock exchanges, aiming to raise approximately €150 million.